D.4.1 - Disaster monitoring and prediction

Disaster monitoring and prediction involves the actions taken to predict when and where a disaster may take place and communicate that information to affected parties.

[Some disaster management information occurs in humanitarian aid systems under the International Affairs and Commerce line of business (e.g., State Department disaster preparedness and planning).] The recommended provisional categorization of the disaster monitoring and protection information type follows:

Security category

D.4.1 - Disaster monitoring and prediction = {(confidentiality, Low), (integrity, High), (availability, High)}

Confidentiality Low

The confidentiality impact level is the effect of unauthorized disclosure of disaster monitoring and prediction information on the ability of responsible agencies to predict when and where a disaster may take place and communicate that information to affected parties. The purpose of disaster monitoring and prediction activities is generally to disseminate information. Sharing of raw information by a diverse group of analysts often improves the quality of predictive analysis. Special Factors Affecting Confidentiality Impact Determination: The consequences of unauthorized disclosure of some disaster monitoring and prediction information may include public panic or other responses that jeopardize public safety, disaster prevention, emergency response, disaster repair, or restoration missions. For example, attempts of large populations to evacuate in an endangered area before necessary preparations are made for evacuation routes can result in a clogging of the routes and failure to evacuate large parts of the population in time to save them from a life-threatening event. Most of the disaster monitoring and prediction information is critical in terms of potential loss of human life and major property damage. The unauthorized release of this information may interfere with disaster prevention or emergency response missions. The confidentiality impact level recommended for the information cited in the example can be moderate or high. The unauthorized disclosure of disaster monitoring and prediction information to terrorists may reveal weak or sensitive points to target, the most effective technique(s use in attacking a target, and information regarding the status, intent, and plans of our adversaries. Where unauthorized disclosure of disaster monitoring and prediction information is expected to be of direct use to terrorists, the confidentiality impact level is recommended to be high. Recommended Confidentiality Impact Level: The provisional confidentiality impact recommended for most disaster monitoring and prediction information is low.

Integrity High

The integrity impact level is based on the specific mission and the data supporting that mission, not on the time required to detect the modification or destruction of information. The consequences of unauthorized modification or destruction of disaster monitoring and prediction information usually depends on whether the information is time-critical. Unauthorized modification or destruction of information affecting disaster monitoring and prediction information may jeopardize public safety, disaster prevention, and/or emergency response missions in a manner that results in unacceptable damage to critical infrastructures, damage to key national assets, or loss of human life. For example, an integrity compromise that prevents timely and accurate dissemination of tsunami and earthquake predictions can have lifethreatening consequences. Recommended Integrity Impact Level: The provisional integrity impact level recommended for disaster monitoring and prediction information is high.

Availability High

The availability impact level is based on the specific mission and the data supporting that mission, not on the time required to re-establish access to disaster monitoring and prediction information. Generally, missions supported by disaster monitoring and prediction information are not reliably tolerant of delays. Delays may cost lives and irreplaceable property, e.g., degradation in mission capability and resultant catastrophic consequences for critical infrastructures, key national assets, and/or human life. For example, a loss of availability of information that prevents timely and accurate dissemination of tsunami and earthquake predictions can have life-threatening consequences. Recommended Availability Impact Level: The provisional availability impact level recommended for disaster monitoring and prediction information is high.